US Fed Maintains Interest Rates Unchanged but Signals "Hawkish" Stance; SHFE Tin and LME Tin Remain High and Rangebound [SMM Tin Midday Review]

Lunchtime Commentary on the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract on June 19, 2025

In the morning session today, the most-traded SHFE tin contract continued to fluctuate at highs, closing at 263,850 yuan/mt at midday, up slightly by 0.16% from the previous trading day. Market sentiment remained cautious, with an intensified tug-of-war between longs and shorts, narrowing the price fluctuation range to 263,000-265,000 yuan/mt.

Smelters in Yunnan, Jiangxi, and other regions continued to operate at low capacity due to raw material shortages. The TCs for 40% grade tin concentrates in Yunnan have fallen to historical lows, prompting some enterprises to enter maintenance or implement gradient production cuts, further tightening the refined tin supply. Insufficient willingness to rush to buy amid continuous price rise was observed, with open interest fluctuating around 24,000 lots, indicating strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market.

As of midday, the LME tin 3-month contract was quoted at $32,465/mt, up 0.48% from yesterday. Technical analysis: LME tin has stabilized above the moving average group, with a short-term resistance level at $33,000/mt. A breakout could open upside room, but caution is advised against a US dollar rebound and macro headwinds.

The US Fed kept interest rates unchanged but released "hawkish" signals, causing the US dollar index to fluctuate rangebound, suppressing the upside room for commodities.

China-US tariff negotiations have entered a critical phase. If no agreement is reached before the suspension period ends on July 8, the 10% tariff floor may suppress demand expectations.